Research

Working papers

First-price Sealed-bid Auctions with Smoothly Ambiguity-Averse Bidders

Tianyu Ma and Frank Riedel

We analyze first-price sealed-bid auctions with independent private values in which bidders are uncertain about the distribution of their opponents’ valuations and have smooth ambiguity preferences. We characterize the unique non-decreasing symmetric equilibrium, whose bidding function solves a nonlinear ordinary differential equation with an endogenous ambiguity-adjusted distribution. Bids increase in ambiguity aversion, lie between the Bayesian benchmarks generated by the least and most competitive candidate priors, and converge to the maxmin benchmark. Under constant relative ambiguity aversion (CRAA), the equilibrium bidding function is explicit.

We also compare auction formats. Under an ex ante predictive criterion, the second-price auction dominates under ambiguity neutrality, but sufficiently strong ambiguity aversion reverses the ranking. Under a model-based criterion, the first-price auction performs better in less competitive environments and worse in more competitive ones, while compressing the range of possible revenues. Bidder preferences also depend on ambiguity attitudes: CRAA bidders weakly prefer the second-price auction, whereas bidders with increasing absolute ambiguity aversion weakly prefer the first-price auction.

Work in progress

Ambiguous Contracts with an \(\alpha\)-MEU Agent

Tianyu Ma

We study ambiguous contracts in a finite moral-hazard principal-agent model in which the agent has \(\alpha\)-MEU preferences (Ghirardato, Maccheroni, and Marinacci, 2004). Dütting, Feldman, Peretz, and Samuelson (2024) show that under maxmin expected utility (Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1989) ambiguity can enlarge the set of implementable actions and that, under consistency, optimal ambiguous contracts admit a single-outcome-payment (SOP) structure. We show that these conclusions are not robust to moderate ambiguity attitudes. When \(\alpha < 1\), consistency is no longer without loss of generality: an inconsistent set of payment functions can strictly improve the principal's payoff, so consistency becomes a substantive credibility restriction. Imposing consistency, we derive sharp thresholds for implementability. If the target action is dominated by a mixture of \(d\) actions, then no consistent contract can \(\alpha\)-implement it when \(\alpha \le 1/d\); under full dimensionality, this threshold is sharp. We also show that if \(\alpha \le 1/(n-1)\), every consistent \(\alpha\)-incentive-compatible set of payment functions is equivalent to a classic contract. Finally, the SOP characterization fails in general for \(\alpha \in (0,1)\), although any consistent incentive-compatible ambiguous contract can still be reduced to at most \(n-1\) payment functions.

Contracting Against Hidden AI Degradation

Tianyu Ma and Weichu Wang